基于VAR模型的区域物流与经济发展关系研究

Cui Guo-hui, L. Xian-sheng
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在文献研究的基础上,以货物周转量、物流网络密度和GDP为研究对象,运用动态计量经济学的方法,分析了1991 - 2007年吉林省物流与经济发展的关系。结果表明,物流网络密度与经济发展之间存在单一格兰杰因果关系,经济发展与物流货物周转量之间也存在单一格兰杰因果关系。结果表明,吉林省物流货物周转里程、物流网络密度与经济发展之间存在正滞后效应,物流网络密度对GDP的影响显著,而货物周转里程对GDP的影响较弱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on the relationship between the regional logistics and economic development based on the model VAR
Based on the study of relative documents, cargo turnover miles, logistics network density and GDP were used as studying objects, the dynamic econometrics' methods were used, the relationship between the logistics and economic development was analyzed in Jilin province from 1991 to 2007. The result shows that there exists single Granger causality between logistics network density and economic development, and so does the economic development and logistics cargo turnover miles. The conclusion is that there exists positive lagged effects among the Jilin logistics cargo turnover miles, logistics network density and economic development, the logistics network density has clear influence on GDP, however the cargo turnover miles has weak influence on GDP.
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