乌克兰境内普里皮亚季盆地河流冰况的趋势和波动

IF 0.8 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
L. Gorbachova, O. Afteniuk, B. Khrystiuk, O. Lobodzinskyi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

关于河冰状态的形成、破坏和持续时间的信息对水电、航运、渔业等尤为重要。研究河流冰况的现代趋势及其时空波动是至关重要的,特别是在气候变化的情况下。本研究根据乌克兰普里皮亚季河流域的一系列观测,研究了气温和冰况的趋势和波动。分析了17个气象站的气温数据和29个水表的冰量数据。采用了一种复杂的分析方法,包括统计和图形方法。研究采用Mann-Kendall统计检验、质量曲线、剩余质量曲线和组合图。在乌克兰的普里皮亚特河流域,观测到的月平均气温、冰的发生、冻结及其持续时间是均匀的(准均匀的)和平稳的(准平稳的)。这种准均匀和准平稳的特征是由于观测序列中只存在不完全的长期周期波动的增减阶段。气温变化趋势和冰况变化趋势具有较强的对应关系,表明气温在冰的发生和冻结过程中起决定性作用。自20世纪90年代末以来,秋冬季气温的升温阶段决定了今年晚些时候冰和冻结的出现。从1988年以后开始的气温变暖趋势,决定了3月份海冰冻结、破裂和消失的时间提前。因此,河流结冰的时间缩短了。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Trends and fluctuations of river ice regimes in the Prypiat Basin, within Ukraine
Information about the formation, destruction, and duration of river ice regimes is especially important for hydropower, shipping, fisheries, etc. Research into modern trends in river ice regimes and their spatial and temporal fluctuations is essential, especially in a changing climate. This study examines the trends and fluctuations of air temperature and ice regimes based on series of observations in the Prypiat River basin within Ukraine. Air temperature data from 17 meteorological stations and ice data from 29 water gauges were analyzed. A complex analytical approach involving statistical and graphical methods was employed. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, mass curve, residual mass curve, and combined graphs were used in the study. In the Prypiat River basin within Ukraine, observations of mean monthly air temperature, ice occurrence, freeze-up, and their duration are homogeneous (quasi-homogeneous) and stationary (quasi-stationary). The quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary characteristics are explained by the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of long-term cyclical fluctuations, which are incomplete. The trends of air temperature and ice regime correspond strongly, indicating the defining role of air temperature in the formation of ice occurrence and freeze-up. Since the end of the 1990s, the warming phase of air temperature in the autumn-winter period determines the appearance of ice and freeze-up later in the year. In March, the warming trend in air temperature, which began after 1988, determines the freeze-up, break-up, and disappearance of ice earlier in the year. Thus, the duration of ice and freeze-up on the rivers has decreased.
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