Stochastic simulations of the optimal control of a stand alone microgrid at the scale of two houses

In off-grid areas, successful use of intermittent renewable energy sources requires optimal management of power consumption. Our experimental site is the “Cirque de Mafate” on Reunion Island. Our laboratory has developed a mixed integer linear programming model which minimizes the electricity consumption of a cluster of houses. This model is deterministic. Our study focuses on the stochastic part, it aims to model, optimize and simulate the stochastic operation of an autonomous microgrid by mutualizing production and storage resources. A study for the solar resource forecasting is performed, using nonparametric methods for the estimation of probability density functions. Indeed, the prediction of the intermittent resource and the combination of production sources are the keys to the good functioning of a microgrid in autonomous mode. Three neighbouring houses are concerned. The experimentation at the scale of a house has already been performed and the results proved the performance of the system under random constraints. This paper presents the results of an experimentation for two houses. One of the strategies adopted is to aim for auto-consumption for three days if the solar forecast is pessimistic, a part of the energy is then reserved at the battery level for the following two days. The results allow to assess the performance of the system in front of random constraints and to make decisions.