Assessment of frost damage risk in a historic masonry wall due to climate change

Abstract. Historic masonry buildings are an integral part of human cultural heritage, and they need to be preserved for future generations. Brick is susceptible to frost damage which is common in regions with cold and humid climates. The frost damage on the masonry walls is accumulated over the years becoming more and more critical for the integrity of the historic buildings and it is also affected by climate change (CC). In the current research, the focus was placed on a coastal region in southern Norway with a significant number of historic masonry buildings. The frost damage risk of the masonry walls was assessed by using data from a climate reanalysis for the present conditions and from a climate model under past, present, and future conditions. Two climate-based (CB) indices accounting for the air temperature and one material response-based (MRB) index considering the temperature and moisture content inside a simulated masonry wall were used for the frost damage risk assessment. The inputs for the MRB index were calculated by heat, air, and moisture (HAM) transfer simulations. Within the HAM simulations, the indoor climate was in one case representative of an unconditioned building with air leakages and many openings, while in the second case it was representative of a small, conditioned room. The overall impact of CC was a decrease in the frost damage risk of the masonry walls. However, an increased frost damage risk was observed from the present to the future conditions according to the MRB index for the walls of small, conditioned rooms with higher driving rain load and lower solar radiation gains. The (i) number of freeze-thaw events, (ii) periods during which freeze-thaw events occur, and (iii) CC-related trends varied based on the considered index with the most explicit risk assessment being the MRB one. Moreover, the freeze-thaw events experienced by the masonry walls of unconditioned, leaky buildings were 20 times more than the ones for the small, conditioned rooms. Significant differences were observed between the results from the climate model and the climate reanalysis which were mainly linked to the underestimation of the air temperature and the overestimation of the precipitation by the climate model. The outputs of the MRB index were translated into certain damage categories while suggestions on improving the limitations of the current research were made.