无非负性赔偿约束的最优保险:模糊性与信念异质性

Mario Ghossoub
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在Arrow(1971)的经典最优保险设计问题中,如果保费取决于赔偿的精算值,如果DM和保险人对随机损失的实现具有相同的概率信念,并且在经典约束下,在世界的每个状态下,赔偿是非负的且不超过损失的价值,则线性可扣除计划对于期望效用最大化的决策者(EU)是最优的。拉维夫(1979)重新审视了阿罗的问题,并得出结论,免赔额的存在是由于赔偿的非负性约束和保险成本的可变性。为了验证这一说法,Gollier(1987)放宽了非负性约束,并认为免赔额的存在仅仅是由于保险成本的可变性。在本文中,我们检验了Gollier结果背后的直觉是否在DM和保险人的更一般偏好下仍然成立。我们考虑模棱两可的设定(片面的,然后是双面的)和信念异质性的设定。我们放弃了非消极性约束,并假设保险公司没有成本(或固定成本),我们为我们制定的问题导出了封闭形式的分析解决方案。特别地,我们证明了最优补偿(相对于。(保留)不再包括可扣除条款(如:,不等于已实现的损失)。此外,最优赔偿(赔偿额)。留存率)也可能是负面的。(高于已实现损失)对于损失的小值,或在没有损失的情况下。这与Gollier关于信念同质性和无歧义性的发现背后的直觉是一致的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Optimal Insurance Without the Nonnegativity Constraint on Indemnities: Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity
In Arrow's (1971) classical problem of optimal insurance design, a linear deductible schedule is optimal for an Expected-Utility (EU) maximizing decision maker (DM), if the premium depends on the indemnity's actuarial value, if the DM and the insurer share the same probabilistic beliefs about the realizations of the random loss, and under the classical constraints that, in each state of the world, the indemnity is nonnegative and does not exceed the value of the loss. Raviv (1979) re-examined Arrow's problem and concluded that the presence of a deductible is due to both the nonnegativity constraint on the indemnity and the variability in the cost of insurance. In an effort to test this statement, Gollier (1987) relaxes the nonnegativity constraint and argues that the existence of a deductible is only due to the variability in the cost of insurance. In this paper, we test whether the intuition behind Gollier's result still holds under more general preferences for the DM and the insurer. We consider a setting of ambiguity (one-sided and then two-sided) and a setting of belief heterogeneity. We drop the nonnegativity constraint and assume no cost (or a fixed cost) to the insurer, and we derive closed-form analytical solutions to the problems that we formulate. In particular, we show that an optimal indemnity (resp., retention) no longer includes a deductible provision (resp., is not equal to the realized loss). Moreover, the optimal indemnity (resp., retention) can be negative (resp., higher than the realized loss) for small values of the loss, or in case of no loss. This is in line with the intuition behind Gollier's finding in the case of belief homogeneity and no ambiguity.
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