Mikaela Smit, Pablo N Perez-Guzman, Kennedy K Mutai, Rachel Cassidy, Joseph Kibachio, Nduku Kilonzo, Timothy B Hallett
{"title":"按人体免疫缺陷病毒状况绘制肯尼亚当前和未来非传染性疾病负担图:模型研究。","authors":"Mikaela Smit, Pablo N Perez-Guzman, Kennedy K Mutai, Rachel Cassidy, Joseph Kibachio, Nduku Kilonzo, Timothy B Hallett","doi":"10.1093/cid/ciz1103","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden in Kenya is not well characterized, despite estimates needed to identify future health priorities. We aimed to quantify current and future NCD burden in Kenya by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Original systematic reviews and meta-analyses of prevalence/incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, high total cholesterol, hypertension, human papillomavirus infection, and related precancerous stages in Kenya were carried out. An individual-based model was developed, simulating births, deaths, HIV disease and treatment, aforementioned NCDs, and cancers. The model was parameterized using systematic reviews and epidemiological national and regional surveillance data. NCD burden was quantified for 2018-2035 by HIV status among adults.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Systematic reviews identified prevalence/incidence data for each NCD except ischemic heart disease. The model estimates that 51% of Kenyan adults currently suffer from ≥1 NCD, with a higher burden in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to persons not living with HIV (62% vs 51%), driven by their higher age profile and partly by HIV-related risk for NCDs. Hypertension and high total cholesterol are the main NCD drivers (adult prevalence of 20.5% [5.3 million] and 9.0% [2.3 million]), with CVD and cancers the main causes of death. The burden is projected to increase by 2035 (56% in persons not living with HIV; 71% in PLWH), with population growth doubling the number of people needing services (15.4 million to 28.1 million) by 2035.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>NCD services will need to be expanded in Kenya. Guidelines in Kenya already support provision of these among both the general and populations living with HIV; however, coverage remains low.</p>","PeriodicalId":50236,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Clinical Nursing","volume":"11 2 1","pages":"1864-1873"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2020-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8240998/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mapping the Current and Future Noncommunicable Disease Burden in Kenya by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Modeling Study.\",\"authors\":\"Mikaela Smit, Pablo N Perez-Guzman, Kennedy K Mutai, Rachel Cassidy, Joseph Kibachio, Nduku Kilonzo, Timothy B Hallett\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/cid/ciz1103\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden in Kenya is not well characterized, despite estimates needed to identify future health priorities. We aimed to quantify current and future NCD burden in Kenya by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Original systematic reviews and meta-analyses of prevalence/incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, high total cholesterol, hypertension, human papillomavirus infection, and related precancerous stages in Kenya were carried out. An individual-based model was developed, simulating births, deaths, HIV disease and treatment, aforementioned NCDs, and cancers. The model was parameterized using systematic reviews and epidemiological national and regional surveillance data. NCD burden was quantified for 2018-2035 by HIV status among adults.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Systematic reviews identified prevalence/incidence data for each NCD except ischemic heart disease. The model estimates that 51% of Kenyan adults currently suffer from ≥1 NCD, with a higher burden in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to persons not living with HIV (62% vs 51%), driven by their higher age profile and partly by HIV-related risk for NCDs. Hypertension and high total cholesterol are the main NCD drivers (adult prevalence of 20.5% [5.3 million] and 9.0% [2.3 million]), with CVD and cancers the main causes of death. The burden is projected to increase by 2035 (56% in persons not living with HIV; 71% in PLWH), with population growth doubling the number of people needing services (15.4 million to 28.1 million) by 2035.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>NCD services will need to be expanded in Kenya. Guidelines in Kenya already support provision of these among both the general and populations living with HIV; however, coverage remains low.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50236,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Clinical Nursing\",\"volume\":\"11 2 1\",\"pages\":\"1864-1873\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-11-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8240998/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Clinical Nursing\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1103\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"NURSING\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Clinical Nursing","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1103","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"NURSING","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mapping the Current and Future Noncommunicable Disease Burden in Kenya by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Modeling Study.
Background: The noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden in Kenya is not well characterized, despite estimates needed to identify future health priorities. We aimed to quantify current and future NCD burden in Kenya by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status.
Methods: Original systematic reviews and meta-analyses of prevalence/incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, high total cholesterol, hypertension, human papillomavirus infection, and related precancerous stages in Kenya were carried out. An individual-based model was developed, simulating births, deaths, HIV disease and treatment, aforementioned NCDs, and cancers. The model was parameterized using systematic reviews and epidemiological national and regional surveillance data. NCD burden was quantified for 2018-2035 by HIV status among adults.
Results: Systematic reviews identified prevalence/incidence data for each NCD except ischemic heart disease. The model estimates that 51% of Kenyan adults currently suffer from ≥1 NCD, with a higher burden in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to persons not living with HIV (62% vs 51%), driven by their higher age profile and partly by HIV-related risk for NCDs. Hypertension and high total cholesterol are the main NCD drivers (adult prevalence of 20.5% [5.3 million] and 9.0% [2.3 million]), with CVD and cancers the main causes of death. The burden is projected to increase by 2035 (56% in persons not living with HIV; 71% in PLWH), with population growth doubling the number of people needing services (15.4 million to 28.1 million) by 2035.
Conclusions: NCD services will need to be expanded in Kenya. Guidelines in Kenya already support provision of these among both the general and populations living with HIV; however, coverage remains low.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Clinical Nursing (JCN) is an international, peer reviewed, scientific journal that seeks to promote the development and exchange of knowledge that is directly relevant to all spheres of nursing practice. The primary aim is to promote a high standard of clinically related scholarship which advances and supports the practice and discipline of nursing. The Journal also aims to promote the international exchange of ideas and experience that draws from the different cultures in which practice takes place. Further, JCN seeks to enrich insight into clinical need and the implications for nursing intervention and models of service delivery. Emphasis is placed on promoting critical debate on the art and science of nursing practice.
JCN is essential reading for anyone involved in nursing practice, whether clinicians, researchers, educators, managers, policy makers, or students. The development of clinical practice and the changing patterns of inter-professional working are also central to JCN''s scope of interest. Contributions are welcomed from other health professionals on issues that have a direct impact on nursing practice.
We publish high quality papers from across the methodological spectrum that make an important and novel contribution to the field of clinical nursing (regardless of where care is provided), and which demonstrate clinical application and international relevance.