Numerical modeling of stresses and deformation in the Zagros–Iranian Plateau region

Abstract. The Zagros orogenic system resulted due to collision of the Arabian plate with the Eurasian plate. The region is characterized by ocean–continent subduction and continent–continent collision, and the convergence velocity shows variations from east to west. Therefore, this region shows the complex tectonic stress and a wide range of diffuse or localized deformation between both plates. The in situ stress and GPS data are very limited and sparsely distributed in this region; therefore, we performed a numerical simulation of the stresses causing deformation in the Zagros–Iran region. The deviatoric stresses resulting from the variations in lithospheric density and thickness and those from shear tractions at the base of the lithosphere due to mantle convection were computed using thin-sheet approximation. Stresses associated with both sources can explain various surface observations of strain rates, SHmax, and plate velocities, thus suggesting a good coupling between lithosphere and mantle in most parts of Zagros and Iran. As the magnitude of stresses due to shear tractions from density-driven mantle convection is higher than those from lithospheric density and topography variations in the Zagros–Iranian Plateau region, mantle convection appears to be the dominant driver of deformation in this area. However, the deformation in the east of Iran is caused primarily by lithospheric stresses. The plate velocity of the Arabian plate is found to vary along the Zagros belt from the north–northeast in the southeast of Zagros to the northwest in northwestern Zagros, similarly to observed GPS velocity vectors. The output of this study can be used in seismic hazards estimations.