Carapichea ipecacuanha (Brot.) Stokes (Rubiaceae): The three last Latin American groups at risk of extinction under pressure from deforestation and climate change

Global climate change is currently a serious threat to biodiversity. The understanding of the effects of climate changes on the flora is urgent. Here, we analyze the effects of future climate change on the spatial distribution of the three remaining groups of Carapichea ipecacuanha (Poaia) in the Americas. We built niche-based models for current and optimistic and pessimistic climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2090. Our findings showed that climatically suitable areas for the Atlantic and Amazon Forest groups will be strongly reduced. The greatest risk of extinction was observed for the Amazon group due to the drastic spatial reduction and abrupt spatial displacement of climate suitability. The climate suitability for the Atlantic Forest group will be reduced, comprising a small suitable area in the transition zone between Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo. The climate suitability for the Panama group remained in an continuous region in Panama and Colombia. Our results encourage future studies that develop conservation management plans in order to ensure the continuation of ecological refugia for this species.