论房地产市场贝弗里奇曲线的斜率

Miroslav Gabrovski, Victor Ortego-Marti
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引用次数: 2

摘要

购房者和空置率的共同运动,即贝弗里奇曲线,是房地产市场周期性特性的关键决定因素。它确定了价格与流动性关键指标(如空置(即待售房屋)、销售和销售时间)之间的相关性。正如最近的研究表明的那样,为了解释房地产市场的核心事实,搜索和匹配模型必须与买家和空置率的正相关共同运动相一致——贝弗里奇曲线必须向上倾斜。本文提供的证据表明,购房者和空置率确实在房地产周期中呈正相关,即房地产市场的贝弗里奇曲线是向上倾斜的。利用空置率和待售时间的数据,我们为买家构建了一个序列,并估计了贝弗里奇曲线的斜率。这种方法只需要一个最小的结构假设:存在一个匹配函数。回归结果证实,在商业周期中,购房者与空置率之间存在正相关关系。此外,我们提供了相对于买家的空缺弹性的估计。空置房每增加1%,买家就会增加约2%,这证实了最近的发现,即买家比待售房屋更不稳定。我们希望这一估计将有助于未来这一领域的研究人员。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the Slope of the Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market
The co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e. the Beveridge Curve, is a key determinant of the cyclical properties of the housing market. It determines the sign of the correlation between prices and key measures of liquidity such as vacancies (i.e. houses for sale), sales, and time-to-sell. As recent work has shown, to account for the core stylized facts of the housing market, search and matching models must be consistent with a positively correlated co-movement of buyers and vacancies—the Beveridge Curve must be upward-sloping. This paper provides evidence that buyers and vacancies are indeed positively correlated along the housing cycle, i.e. the Beveridge Curve on the housing market is upward sloping. Using data on vacancies and time-to-sell, we construct a series for buyers and estimate the slope of the Beveridge Curve. This approach requires only one minimal structural assumption: the existence of a matching function. The regression results confirm the positive relationship between buyers and vacancies over the business cycle. In addition, we provide an estimate of the elasticity of vacancies with respect to buyers. A one percent increase in vacancies is associated with around a two percent increase in buyers, confirming recent findings that buyers are more volatile than houses for sale. We hope this estimate will help future researchers in this area.
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