Competition analysis of the UK intercity coach market: a structural econometric model

Abstract This paper investigates the effectiveness of liberalization policy on the intercity coach market in England and Wales and evaluates its impact in promoting competition and enhancing welfare. The paper adds to the current literature by assessing this policy focusing on natural monopolies, deriving a structural model of the industry and using web-scraped key market-level data in the study. Regression analysis and descriptive statistics suggest peripheral routes with a small market size are natural monopolies, where passengers pay higher prices. We estimate a structural model, currently absent from the literature, which shows that these routes are characterized by lower welfare levels. The model allows us to simulate a policy promoting competition on such routes showing that a regulator could generate net welfare gains by implementing a more competitive equilibrium on these routes. This paper confirms the dominant conclusion that unregulated coach industries detrimentally consolidate, as demonstrated in other European markets.