通过比较三种严格的预测技术分析孟加拉国一家公司的商业战略

M. B. Hasan, M. Asadujjamanand, M. Haque
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引用次数: 0

摘要

孟加拉国的商业组织基本上是通过基于直觉的预测来经营业务的。但关键是要尽可能准确地预测不久的将来,使企业盈利。这有助于商业组织的管理者正确规划他们的资源,从而使组织的成本最小化,利润最大化。在这篇研究论文中,我们将通过比较三种不同的严格预测技术如霍尔特方法,霍尔特-温特方法和自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)方法获得的结果来分析孟加拉国一家公司的商业战略,以便商业组织可以选择适当的预测技术来经营他们的业务。为此,我们将首先说明和分析预测和时间序列分析的基础知识,常用的预测方法,一些严格的方法,如Holt方法,Winter方法和自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型。我们将使用Microsoft Excel,统计数据分析工具R和MATHEMATICA进行分析和计算。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),71(1):26- 35,2023 (1)
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analyzing Business Strategies of a Company in Bangladesh by Comparing Three Rigorous Forecasting Techniques
Business organizations in Bangladesh are basically running their business through intuition based forecasting. But it is crucial to anticipate the near future as accurate as possible to make the business profitable. This helps the manager of a business organization to plan their resources properly and as a result the organization can minimize its cost and maximize profit. In this research paper, we will analyze the business strategies of a company in Bangladesh by comparing the results obtained from three different rigorous forecasting techniques such as Holt’s method, Holt-Winter’s method and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method so that the business organization can select proper forecasting technique to run their business. For this, we will first illustrate and analyze basics of forecasting and time series analysis, usual forecasting methods, some rigorous methods e.g., Holt’s method, Winter’s method and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. We will carry out our analysis and calculation by using Microsoft Excel, statistical data analysis tool R and MATHEMATICA. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 71(1): 26-35, 2023 (Jan)
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