The Application of Grey Theory Model in the Predication of Jiangsu Province's Electric Power Demand

Based on the grey system theory, the paper establishes an electricity demand forecasting model for Jiangsu province, and verifies it using the data from the year 1997 to 2012. The result shows that the accuracy of this forecast model is “superior”. This proved that GM (1, 1) model used for the electricity demand forecasting of Jiangsu province can fully meet the needs of the forecast of electricity. In the mean time, the electricity demand of Jiangsu from the year 2013 to 2015(which year is the end of China's twelfth five-year plan) was forecasted by applying the model and the result shows that the electricity consumption in Jiangsu province will increase rapidly in the next few years. Up to the year 2015, it will reach 0.7187 trillion kW·h, which requests the acceleration of the generation of power, so as to meet the needs of the economic development of Jiangsu province in the next few years.