数学建模作为规划铁路运输策略的一个要素

IF 1.3 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
A. Borucka, D. Mazurkiewicz, Eliza Łagowska
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引用次数: 1

摘要

铁路运输运营的有效规划和优化依赖于有效可靠的需求预测。由于所使用的数学模型不充分,运输性能预测的结果通常与实测值不同。为了响应这一应用需求,我们报告了一项研究的结果,该研究的目标是在历史数据的基础上开发一个有效的铁路客运绩效数学模型,从而可以对该服务的未来需求做出可靠的预测。提出了专门用于这类经验数据的几个模型,并建立了选择标准。研究中使用的模型有:季节朴素模型、指数平滑(ETS)模型、带Box-Cox变换的指数平滑状态空间模型、ARMA误差、三角趋势和季节成分(TBATS)模型和自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型。本文提出的时间序列识别和预测方法主要针对具有趋势性和季节性的时间序列数据的处理。然后,确定了最佳模型,并对其准确性和有效性进行了评估。注意到所调查的时间序列具有较强的季节性和上升趋势。这一信息对于规划铁路客运发展战略非常重要,因为它表明,为了满足现有需求,需要对交通基础设施和上层建筑的发展进行额外的投资和参与。最后,对连续时间段的运输性能进行了预测。这样的预测可以显著改善火车行程的调度系统,并根据季节和乘客人数的年增长来确定铁路车辆的需求水平,提高铁路运输管理的有效性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AS AN ELEMENT OF PLANNING RAIL TRANSPORT STRATEGIES
Effective planning and optimization of rail transport operations depends on effective and reliable forecasting of demand. The results of transport performance forecasts usually differ from measured values because the mathematical models used are inadequate. In response to this applicative need, we report the results of a study whose goal was to develop, on the basis of historical data, an effective mathematical model of rail passenger transport performance that would allow to make reliable forecasts of future demand for this service. Several models dedicated to this type of empirical data were proposed and selection criteria were established. The models used in the study are: the seasonal naive model, the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model, the exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trigonometric trend and seasonal components (TBATS) model, and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The proposed time series identification and forecasting methods are dedicated to the processing of time series data with trend and seasonality. Then, the best model was identified and its accuracy and effectiveness were assessed. It was noticed that investigated time series is characterized by strong seasonality and an upward trend. This information is important for planning a development strategy for rail passenger transport, because it shows that additional investments and engagement in the development of both transport infrastructure and superstructure are required to meet the existing demand. Finally, a forecast of transport performance in sequential periods of time was presented. Such forecast may significantly improve the system of scheduling train journeys and determining the level of demand for rolling stock depending on the season and the annual rise in passenger numbers, increasing the effectiveness of management of rail transport.
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来源期刊
Transport
Transport Engineering-Mechanical Engineering
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
19
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: At present, transport is one of the key branches playing a crucial role in the development of economy. Reliable and properly organized transport services are required for a professional performance of industry, construction and agriculture. The public mood and efficiency of work also largely depend on the valuable functions of a carefully chosen transport system. A steady increase in transportation is accompanied by growing demands for a higher quality of transport services and optimum efficiency of transport performance. Currently, joint efforts taken by the transport experts and governing institutions of the country are required to develop and enhance the performance of the national transport system conducting theoretical and empirical research. TRANSPORT is an international peer-reviewed journal covering main aspects of transport and providing a source of information for the engineer and the applied scientist. The journal TRANSPORT publishes articles in the fields of: transport policy; fundamentals of the transport system; technology for carrying passengers and freight using road, railway, inland waterways, sea and air transport; technology for multimodal transportation and logistics; loading technology; roads, railways; airports, ports, transport terminals; traffic safety and environment protection; design, manufacture and exploitation of motor vehicles; pipeline transport; transport energetics; fuels, lubricants and maintenance materials; teamwork of customs and transport; transport information technologies; transport economics and management; transport standards; transport educology and history, etc.
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