BOT项目最优资本结构与债务能力实证研究

Borliang Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

政府机构推动私营部门参与诸如BOT项目等基础设施的开发是世界的普遍趋势。然而,由于项目期间存在太多的不确定性,BOT项目本身就存在风险。在BOT项目中,对收益过于乐观和缺乏风险分析往往会导致特许权人对项目可行性的错误估计。这可能导致BOT项目的高违约概率,给特许经营者带来财务灾难。在最坏的情况下,它可能会使项目变得无法支持。然而,在传统的BOT融资模型中,很少讨论违约概率和破产成本。一般情况下,BOT项目的资本结构假设为股权占30%,债务占70%,债务偿还安排为在还款期偿还等值的统一年度成本债务。这种还款安排没有考虑到收入的不稳定性。偿还期限不灵活的债务是有风险的。并且,它可能导致项目的高PD。本研究的目的是为了减轻由于收入波动而导致的项目违约风险。以台湾国立联合大学学生宿舍项目为实证研究,对上述分析进行了验证。本文提出的还款安排可以使项目的35% PD降低到1%以下PD。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Study of Optimal Capital Structure and the Debt Capacity of BOT Projects
It is world widely trend for governmental agencies to promote private sectors to participate in the development of infrastructures, such as BOT projects. However, BOT projects are inherently risky due to too many uncertainties during the project period. Overoptimistic in revenue and lack of risk analysis in BOT projects might usually lead the concessionaire to misestimate the project feasibility. This may result in high probability of defaults (PD) of BOT projects and cause financial disaster toward concessionaire. In the worst situation, it could make the projects become unbackable. However, it is rarely to discuss the probability of defaults and bankruptcy cost in the conventional BOT financial model. In general, capital structure of BOT projects is assumed 30% of equity and 70% of debt, and debt repayment is arranged in repaying equivalent uniform annul cost debt in repayment periods. This kind of repayment arrangement does not consider the erratic nature of revenue. It is risky to repay the debt obligation with inflexible repayment term. And, it may lead to high PD of the projects. The objective of this study was to alleviate the risk of project defaults due to the volatility of revenue. A student dormitory project of the national United University in Taiwan is used as an empirical study to demonstrate the analysis. The repayment arrangement proposed in this paper could make the 35% PD of the project reduce to less than 1% PD.
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