阿拉伯世界和苏丹的粮食和水安全:现状和威胁

Nagat Elmulthum, Lubna Mohamed Musa, Hanan OsmanAli
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这项研究强调粮食和水安全的重要性,旨在研究和分析阿拉伯世界的粮食和水安全情况,特别强调苏丹。本研究采用描述性统计,使用从各种来源收集的二手数据。结果表明,2010年阿拉伯世界的粮食消费差距比1973年增加了24%。结果表明,阿拉伯世界人均可利用水量从1960年的3430 m3下降到2000年的1250m m3,再到2010年的876 m3。预计到2025年,人均可用水将进一步下降至6.67亿立方米,到2050年将下降至5亿立方米。这些数字反映了本世纪阿拉伯世界的水和粮食安全受到威胁的情况,考虑到水贫困线估计为1000米3 .苏丹分为两个国家对苏丹民主共和国的人均可用水产生了不利影响。研究结果表明,在1986/87-2006/ 07年的大部分季节,苏丹谷物的自给率低于100%,表明谷物作物的产量低于苏丹人民的消费需求。苏丹消费习惯转向小麦,再加上较低的相对优势,导致1986/87-2007/ 08年期间小麦自给率较低。小麦的低自给率表明,可用粮食短缺主要是由于小麦的巨大消费缺口造成的。结果表明,小麦进口是苏丹经济的真正负担,吸收了农业部门出口产生的大部分外汇。结果表明,与国际平均水生产力相比,苏丹Gezira计划种植的高粱、小麦和花生的水生产力非常低。根据这项研究的结果,我们建议拨出大量财政资源,以加强粮食生产、水项目投资和水的有效利用,同时特别考虑到与实施水项目有关的健康威胁。强烈建议在合作和公平分配原则的基础上为阿拉伯国家制定长期的水和粮食生产计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Food and Water Security in the Arab World and Sudan: Status and Threats
Emphasizing the importance of food and water security, this study aimed at studying and analysing food and water security situation in the Arab World with special emphasis on Sudan. The Study employed descriptive statistics using secondary data collected fro m various sources. Results obtained indicated that food consumption gap in the Arab World increased by 24% in 2010 co mpared to 1973. Results obtained indicated that the per capita available water in the Arab World decreased from 3430 m 3 in 1960 to 1250m 3 in 2000 to 876 m 3 in 2010. A further decline in per capita available water to 667m 3 in 2025 and 500m 3 in 2050 is expected. These figures reflects a threatening situation for water and food security in the Arab World during the current century bearing in mind that the water poverty line is estimated at 1000m 3 .The separation of Sudan into two countries has adversely affected the per capita available water in the democratic republic of Sudan. Results of the study proved that the self-sufficiency rat io of cereals in Sudan was less than 100% for most of the seasons during the period 1986/87-2006/ 07 indicat ing that production of cereal crops is below the consumption requirements of Sudanese people. The shift in consumption habits towards wheat in Sudan coupled with low co mparat ive advantage resulted in low wheat self-sufficiency ratio during the period 1986/87-2007/ 08. Th is lo w self -sufficiency rat io in wheat gives an indication that the shortage in available food is mainly attributed to the significant consumption gap in wheat. Results indicated that wheat imports are real burden on Sudanese economy absorbing most of the foreign exchange generated fro m exports of Agricultural sector. Results obtained indicated that water productivity of Sorghu m, Wheat and Groundnut grown in Gezira scheme in Sudan was very low compared to the average international water productivity. Based on the results of the study we recommend the allocation ofsubstantial financial resources to enhance food production, investment in water projects and efficient use of water with special consideration of health threats associated with the implementation of water pro jects. Develop ment of along-termwater and food production plan for the Arab countries based on the principles of cooperation and equitable distribution is highly reco mmended.
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