外商直接投资、国内投资、贸易对经济增长的关系:协整分析

Nor Amyra Shazzyra Zaharudin, Siti Ayu Jalil
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标:由于马来西亚自1992年以来一直是一个中高收入国家,它渴望到2028年达到高收入国家的地位。本文旨在研究1979年至2019年马来西亚外国直接投资流入(FDI)、国内投资(GFCF)、贸易开放(to)和经济增长(GDP)之间的相互关系。方法:计量经济学模型和技术采用单位根检验、Johansen-Juselius协整分析和向量误差修正机制。单位根检验结果表明,各序列在一阶差分处均具有平稳性。结果:随后,协整分析描述了在5%显著性水平上存在一个协整序列,因此VECM是一种合适的应用技术。从长期来看,VECM发现FDI增加1%会导致GDP下降0.1338%,而GFCF增加1%会使GDP增加0.8136%。此外,根据VECM的因果关系发现,GDP在短期内对FDI具有微弱的单边影响。启示:本文当然提供了新的文献和证据,通过先进的技术应用的马来西亚背景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nexus of Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, Trade on Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
Objective: As Malaysia is an upper-middle-income country since 1992, it aspires to achieve high-income nation status by 2028. This paper aims to examine the interrelation of foreign direct investment inflows (FDI), domestic investment (GFCF), trade openness (TO), and economic growth (GDP) in Malaysia from 1979 to 2019. Methodology: The econometric model and techniques applied are unit root test, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis, and vector error correction mechanism. The unit root test result indicated the stationarity of all series at the first difference. Findings: Subsequently, co-integration analysis depicted a presence of one co-integration among the series at 5% level of significance, thus VECM is an appropriate technique to apply. In the long run, VECM findings indicated 1% increase in FDI caused a decline in GDP by 0.1338%, while 1% increase in GFCF will increase GDP by 0.8136%. Also, GDP has a weak unilateral effect on FDI in the short run based on VECM causality findings. Implications: This paper certainly provides new literature and evidence for the Malaysian context through advanced techniques applied.
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