美联储是否将通胀预期定得过低?

IF 2.9 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Brent H. Bundick, A. L. Smith
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引用次数: 2

摘要

2012年,美联储采用了2%的通胀目标,以稳定长期通胀预期。自那以后,通货膨胀率平均约为1.4%。现代理论认为,通胀最终应该倾向于长期通胀预期。在过去十年的大部分时间里,通货膨胀率一直低于美联储2%的通胀目标,这引发了长期通胀预期是否被锚定的问题——如果是的话,它们是否被锚定在2%以下。布伦特•邦迪克和a•李•史密斯认为,美联储对通胀数字目标的传达更好地锚定了长期通胀预期;然而,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)对2009 - 2011年长期通胀的预测可能将其固定在2%以下。作者提供的证据表明,2009年联邦公开市场委员会在经济预测摘要(SEP)中增加了长期通胀,加上2012年最终采用了2%的长期通胀目标,使投资者的通胀预期更加稳定。与此同时,从2009年到2011年,SEP对长期通胀的预测普遍低于2%,这可能导致通胀预期锚定在2%以下。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low?
In 2012, the Federal Reserve adopted a 2 percent target for inflation to firmly anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Since then, inflation has averaged about 1.4 percent. Modern theories suggest that inflation should eventually gravitate toward measures of longer-run inflation expectations. The tendency for inflation to reside below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target over much of the past decade raises questions of whether longer-run inflation expectations are anchored—and, if so, whether they are anchored below 2 percent. Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith argue that the Federal Reserve’s communication of a numerical objective for inflation better anchored longer-term inflation expectations; however, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for longer-run inflation from 2009–11 may have anchored them below 2 percent. The authors present evidence that the 2009 addition of longer-run inflation to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), together with the eventual adoption of a longer-run 2 percent inflation objective in 2012, made investors’ inflation expectations more stable. At the same time, SEP projections for longer-run inflation from 2009 to 2011 generally resided below 2 percent, which may have led inflation expectations to anchor below 2 percent.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.90%
发文量
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