利用人工智能技术进行科技预测

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
S. Golubev, Alexander L. Afanasiev, Alexander V. Kuritsyn
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目前,人工智能被广泛应用于社会、经济和环境预测的形成。在创建人工智能时,广泛使用机器学习技术、深度学习技术和信息阵列(大数据)中的模式查找技术、人工语言处理和生成技术等。与此同时,人工智能在科技预测中的应用问题还没有得到足够的研究。这项研究的目的是找到有效的方法来利用人工智能技术来形成科学和技术预测。研究的目的是确定可以在科技预测生命周期的各个阶段使用的人工智能技术,并指定使用它们的个别方法来解决与世界相比预测科学,工程和技术发展水平的问题。这证实了该研究的相关性。主要研究方法是分析国内外在科技预测中应用人工智能技术的文献和最佳实践;以及作者在科技预测领域开展的研究工作成果,并使其适应经济和企业数字化转型的背景下改进预测的形成。作者考虑了技术执行的人工功能的结构,并确定了在科技预测的各个阶段使用人工智能的优先领域。利用语义分析和认知技术预测装备和技术在各种情景条件下与世界的战备水平的便捷性和特点,提供了所采用的解决方案的最大效率。考虑了在基于信息技术的决策支持的科学和技术预测中使用人工智能的信息和分析支持问题。所提出结果的新颖性在于,作者首次从系统和综合方法的角度描述了在生命周期的各个阶段使用最有效的人工智能技术来形成科学和技术预测的可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The use of artificial intelligence technologies for scientific and technological forecasting
Currently, artificial intelligence is widely used in the formation of social, economic and environmental forecasts. When creating artificial intelligence, machine learning technologies, deep learning technology and searching for patterns in information arrays (Big Data), artificial language processing and generation technologies, etc. are widely used. At the same time, the issue of using artificial intelligence in scientific and technological forecasting has not been worked out enough. The purpose of the study was to find effective approaches to the use of artificial intelligence technologies in the formation of scientific and technological forecasts. The objective of the study was to identify artificial intelligence technologies that can be used at various stages of the life cycle of scientific and technological forecasting and to specify individual ways of using them to solve problems of predicting the level of development of science, engineering and technology compared to the world. This confirms the relevance of the study. The main research method is the analysis of domestic and foreign publications and best practices for using artificial intelligence technologies in scientific and technological forecasting, as well as the results of research work performed by the authors in the field of scientific and technological forecasting and adapting them to improve the formation of forecasts in the context of digital transformation of the economy and enterprises The authors considered the structure of artificial functions performed by technologies and identified priority areas for the use of artificial intelligence at various stages of scientific and technological forecasting. The expediency and features of the use of semantic analysis and cognitive technologies in predicting the level of readiness of equipment and technologies in comparison with the world under various scenario conditions are shown, which provides the greatest efficiency of the adopted solution. The issues of information and analytical support for the use of artificial intelligence in scientific and technological forecasting based on information technologies for decision support are considered. The novelty of the presented results lies in the fact that, for the first time, the authors describe the possibilities of using the most effective artificial intelligence technologies at various stages of the life cycle for the formation of scientific and technological forecasts from the standpoint of a systematic and integrated approach.
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CiteScore
0.70
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