摩洛哥公共养老金制度的参数化改革分析

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Hind El-houjjaji, Abdellah Echaoui
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2016年,摩洛哥政府通过了一项参数改革,旨在应对CMR平民养老金制度的严峻财务状况。我们使用2014-2064年期间基金人口的队列组成人口预测模型来检验这一改革的稳健性。然后我们对计划的财务状况进行预测。此外,我们预测了现状和我们建议单独提高退休年龄的替代方案,然后将结果与2016年参数改革的结果进行了比较。调查结果/独创性:在这三种情况下,参数改革对财务状况的长期和短期影响都是有限的。从长期来看,这不足以解决养老金计划赤字大规模增加的问题,从短期来看,这既不足以消除现有的结构性问题,也不足以避免未来的财政赤字。此外,与其他场景相比,我们的备选场景似乎有更多的优势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Parametric reform analysis of the Moroccan public pension system
In 2016, the government of Morocco adopted a parametric reform intended to deal with the critical financial situation of the CMR civilian pension regime. We examine the robustness of this reform using the Cohort-Component population projection model to the fund's population during the period 2014-2064. Then we lead a projection of the scheme financial situation. Moreover, we project the status quo situation and an alternative scenario where we propose to increase the retirement age solely, and then compare the results with those of the 2016 parametric reform. Findings/Originality : For the three scenarios, a parametric reform will have a limited effect on the financial situation, in both the long and the short-term. In long run, it is not sufficient to solve the problem of massive increase of pension scheme deficits while in short run it is not sufficient to eliminate the existing structural problems neither to avoid the future financial deficit. Furthermore, our alternative scenario seems to have some more advantages, comparing with the other scenarios.
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来源期刊
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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