模拟冠状病毒的传播

Arun Kenath, O. Kiren, C. Sivaram
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冠状病毒在很短的时间内就在全球范围内造成了严重破坏。虽然正在努力开发针对该病毒的疫苗,但在此之前,最好的行动方针是保持良好的卫生习惯和社交距离。在这项工作中,我们讨论了这类病毒传播的一些定量模型。这些模型表明,“社会距离”,即个体之间一到两米的空间间隔,可以通过增加传播的时间尺度来降低传播速度。我们还模拟了曲线的增长、平坦和衰减,这些模型与在不同地区(国家)观察到的模型相匹配。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling the spread of Corona virus
The Corona virus has in a very short span wreaked havoc on a global scale. While efforts are on to develop a vaccine against the virus, the best course of action till then is to practice good hygiene and social distancing. In this work, we discuss some quantitative models for the spread of such viruses. These models imply that ‘social distancing’, i.e. a spatial separation of one to two metres between individuals could curtail the rate of spread by increasing the time scale for propagation. We also model the growth, flattening and decay of the curve and these models match with those observed in various regions (countries).
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