冈比亚能源转型的长期优化模型

Q4 Energy
Moses S. Bass, A. López-Agüera
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冈比亚的能源部门完全依赖进口石油产品来发电。该国不仅容易受到全球石油市场动荡的影响,而且电力供应系统也不稳定。截至2020年,该国很大一部分电力需求仍未得到满足。在最近政府干预改善能源系统之后,本文使用开源能源建模系统(OSeMOSYS)在30年(2020-2050)的时间范围内研究了最优产能扩张规划。研究的三种情景包括照常营业(BAU),反映了现有发电模式的延续;第二种情景(路线图)与冈比亚的战略电力路线图(2021-2040)保持一致;第三种情景考虑了可再生能源在能源结构中的高渗透率。与政策制定者的预期相反,到2030年可再生能源仅占发电量的19.2%,到2050年仅占11%。2050年的二氧化碳排放量在路线图情景下减少31%,在新情景下减少71%。新方案的全球成本比路线图方案高29%,但当所有方案的资本投资都得到充分补贴时,就能源成本而言,新方案比路线图方案更具竞争力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
LONGTERM OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR THE GAMBIA’S ENERGY TRANSITION
The energy sector in the Gambia is entirely dependent on imported petroleum products for electricity generation. The country is not only vulnerable to global oil market disruptions but also has an unstable electricity supply system. As of 2020, a huge portion of the country’s electricity demand remains unsatisfied. Following recent government intervention to improve the energy system, this paper examined the optimal capacity expansion planning using the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS) on a time horizon of thirty years, (2020-2050). The three scenarios studied include the business as usual (BAU), which reflects the continuation with the existing power generation pattern, the second scenario (roadmap) aligns with the Gambia’s strategic electricity roadmap (2021-2040) and the third scenario considered high renewable penetration in the energy mix. Contrary to policy makers expectations, renewables accounted for only 19.2% of electricity generation in the roadmap by 2030 and 11% by 2050. CO2 emission in 2050 reduced by 31% in the roadmap scenario and 71% in the new scenario. The global cost of the new scenario is 29% more expensive than the roadmap scenario but becomes more competitive than the roadmap in terms of energy cost when the capital investment is fully subsidised in all scenarios.
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来源期刊
Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal
Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal Energy-Energy Engineering and Power Technology
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
147
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