基于离散事件模拟的船舶应急准备水平预测:以消防演习为例

IF 0.8 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE

Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI:10.7225/toms.v11.n02.008

Burcu Öztürk Taç, M. Celik

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种将模糊Dematel (FD)与离散事件模拟(DES)相结合的混合方法来预测船舶应急准备水平。FD使用影响应急准备的关键因素，根据从45艘商船收集的真实消防演习记录进行了DES。仿真结果表明，舰艇A和舰艇B在理想条件下的平均训练时间分别为27.47 min、51.49 min、29.99 min和28.12 min。根据调查结果，建议采取与这些因素有关的恢复行动，以促进就地执行。所提出的模型对岸上管理人员非常重要，使他们能够持续监测船队的应急准备水平，即使在大流行期间也是如此。计划进行进一步研究，以开发一种远程监测系统，使紧急情况下的现有反应程序数字化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Prediction of Emergency Preparedness Level On-Board Ships Using Discrete Event Simulation: the Case of Firefighting Drill

This paper proposes a hybrid approach, including Fuzzy Dematel (FD) integrated with Discrete Event Simulation (DES), to predict emergency preparedness levels on-board ships. The FD used critical factors that affect emergency preparedness to conduct a DES based on real firefighting drill records collected from 45 merchant ships. The simulation results showed the average duration of on-board drills in ideal conditions (27.47 min.), in the worst-case scenario (51.49 min.), for Ship A (29.99 min.), and Ship B (28.12 min.). Based on the findings, recovery actions linked to the factors have been recommended to promote on-board implementation. The proposed model is of great importance to shore-based managers, allowing them to monitor the emergency preparedness level of the fleet continuously, even during pandemics. Further studies are planned to develop a remote monitoring system that would digitalize the existing response procedures in emergency situations.

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来源期刊

Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS ENGINEERING, MARINE-

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： ToMS is a scientific journal with international peer review which publishes papers in the following areas: ~ Marine Engineering, ~ Navigation, ~ Safety Systems, ~ Marine Ecology, ~ Marine Fisheries, ~ Hydrography, ~ Marine Automation and Electronics, ~ Transportation and Modes of Transport, ~ Marine Information Systems, ~ Maritime Law, ~ Management of Marine Systems, ~ Marine Finance, ~ Bleeding-Edge Technologies, ~ Multimodal Transport, ~ Psycho-social and Legal Aspects of Long-term Working Aboard. The journal is published in English as an open access journal, and as a classic paper journal (in limited editions). ToMS aims to present best maritime research from South East Europe, particularly the Mediterranean area. Articles will be double-blind reviewed by three reviewers. With the intention of providing an international perspective at least one of the reviewers will be from abroad. ToMS also promotes scientific collaboration with students and has a section titled Students’ ToMS. These papers also undergo strict peer reviews. Furthermore, the Journal publishes short reviews on significant papers, books and workshops in the fields of maritime science.