预测一些撒哈拉以南非洲和欧洲国家的COVID-19大流行终点

Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah, John Coker Ayimah, D. Yaro, Elikem Kofi Krampa, Awura Amma Adomaa Danso
{"title":"预测一些撒哈拉以南非洲和欧洲国家的COVID-19大流行终点","authors":"Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah, John Coker Ayimah, D. Yaro, Elikem Kofi Krampa, Awura Amma Adomaa Danso","doi":"10.1155/2023/7882843","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa.","PeriodicalId":14766,"journal":{"name":"J. Appl. Math.","volume":"4 1","pages":"7882843:1-7882843:10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries\",\"authors\":\"Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah, John Coker Ayimah, D. Yaro, Elikem Kofi Krampa, Awura Amma Adomaa Danso\",\"doi\":\"10.1155/2023/7882843\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa.\",\"PeriodicalId\":14766,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"J. Appl. Math.\",\"volume\":\"4 1\",\"pages\":\"7882843:1-7882843:10\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"J. Appl. Math.\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"J. Appl. Math.","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

在这项研究中,提出了一种新的改进SIR模型,其中包括两种控制措施,用于预测包括加纳在内的撒哈拉以南非洲前三大国家(南非、埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚)和欧洲前四大国家(法国、德国、英国和意大利)的COVID-19终点。明确推导了模型参数对再现数的敏感性指标,并对其进行了数值计算。数值模拟表明,在不同的预期灭绝时间线上,所提出的最优控制方案的总体下降结果是连续的。另一个有趣的观察结果是,在对撒哈拉以南非洲动态的模拟中,人们观察到,使用个人防护装备比使用疫苗更有效,而在欧洲,使用疫苗比使用个人防护装备更有效。从模拟得出的结论是,COVID-19将在加纳的第3年之前结束,在肯尼亚的第6年之前结束,在埃塞俄比亚和南非的第9年之前结束。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries
In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信