巴黎地区办公周期的联立方程模型(法文)

IF 2.2 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

European Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2009-02-01 DOI:10.2139/SSRN.1423382

Richard Malle

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了写字楼市场的联立方程模型。我们确定了供需关系，以联系商业房地产的主要基本面:净吸收、空置率、实际租金和建设。该模型应用于1994-2008年期间巴黎地区的写字楼市场。然后根据2009年至2020年的不同就业预测建立办公市场周期。结果表明，就业周期决定写字楼市场基本面周期。利率对房地产参与者的决策影响有限。从2009年到2010年，实证结果表明，由于2008-2009年的经济冲击，实际租金可能处于历史低位。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A Simultaneous Equation Model of the Office Cycle for the Parisian Region (French)

This paper presents a simultaneous equation model for the office market. We determine supply and demand relationships to link main fundamentals of commercial real estate: net absorption, vacancy rate, real rents and construction. This model is applied to the office market in the Paris region over the 1994-2008 period. Office market cycles are then established according to different employment forecasts from 2009 to 2020. The results show that the employment cycle determines the cycle of office market fundamentals. Interest rates have a limited impact on the decisions of property actors. From 2009 to 2010, empirical results show that real rents may be historically low because of the economic shock in 2008-2009.

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来源期刊

European Journal of Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

8.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The European Journal of Finance publishes a full range of research into theoretical and empirical topics in finance. The emphasis is on issues that reflect European interests and concerns. The journal aims to publish work that is motivated by significant issues in the theory or practice of finance. The journal promotes communication between finance academics and practitioners by providing a vehicle for the publication of research into European issues, stimulating research in finance within Europe, encouraging the international exchange of ideas, theories and the practical application of methodologies and playing a positive role in the development of the infrastructure for finance research.