<0.1%的稳定阳性率是否表明新爆发了SARS-CoV-2感染?

A. Boretti
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摘要

这封信简要分析了新西兰的SARS-CoV-2阳性检测率以及为应对这些率的变化而实施的限制。由于担心新冠肺炎阳性病例增加,新西兰政府于2020年8月16日采取了更严格的封锁措施,并于2020年8月18日推迟了原定于9月举行的选举。阳性病例数量的增长是检测数量增长速度高于阳性病例数量增长速度的产物。16日的阳性率为0.05%(26014例中有13例阳性)。8月2日,虽然政府认为已经根除了新冠病毒,但确诊率为0.18%(1692例确诊3例)。应对此次大流行的更好方法是根据阳性率(而不仅仅是阳性病例数)制定政策,并使用具有适当周期阈值的逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)检测纳入病毒载量,以正确识别感染病例。还建议保护脆弱人群,避免对健康人群进行不必要的限制。SARS-CoV-2大流行将持续几个月以上的时间,生活越早恢复正常越好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is a stable positive rate of <0.1% an indication of a fresh outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection?
This letter gives a short analysis of the rate of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in New Zealand and the restrictions that were implemented in response to these rates changing. Concerned about the growth of the number of positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the New Zealand government introduced stricter lockdown measures on August 16, 2020, and on August 18, 2020, it postponed elections planned for September. Growth in the number of positive cases was an artifact of the number of tests growing at a higher rate than the number of positive cases. The positive rate on August 16 was 0.05% (13 positive cases from 26,014 tests). On August 2, the positive rate was higher at 0.18% (three positive cases from 1,692 tests), despite the government considering that the virus was eradicated at this time. A better approach to this pandemic would be the development of policies based on the positive rate, not solely on positive case numbers, and to include viral load using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests with an appropriate cycle threshold to properly identify infectious cases. It is also advised to protect vulnerable populations and avoid unnecessary limitations to the healthy population. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will last longer than several months, and the sooner life gets back to nearly normal, the better.
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