在沟通不确定性时保持可信度:方向性的作用

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS
Sarah C. Jenkins, Adam J. L. Harris
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引用次数: 8

摘要

风险传播者经常需要传播概率预测。有时,有10%可能性的事件会发生,或者有90%可能性的事件不会发生——这是概率上意想不到的结果。先前操纵沟通格式的研究发现,如果发生“不太可能”的事件,与发生“10-30%可能性”的事件相比,沟通者会失去更多的可信度,并且被认为不太正确。我们认为“方向性-结果一致性”是预测“错误”的基础。例如,负面定向术语“不太可能”导致更严厉的评级,因为结果与预测的原始焦点(事件不发生)相反。在概率非预期(实验1)和预期(实验2)结果的背景下,我们发现在“方向性-结果不一致”的情况下,沟通者被认为是不可信和不正确的。因此,沟通人员应仔细考虑风险沟通中隐含的方向性,以最大限度地提高沟通效果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty: the role of directionality
Abstract Risk communicators often need to communicate probabilistic predictions. On occasion, an event with 10% likelihood will occur, or one with 90% likelihood will not – a probabilistically unexpected outcome. Previous research manipulating communication format has found that communicators lose more credibility and are perceived as less correct if an “unlikely” event occurs than if a “10–30% likelihood” event occurs. We suggest “directionality–outcome congruence” underlies the perception of predictions as “erroneous”. For example, the negatively directional term “unlikely” led to harsher ratings because the outcome was counter to the original focus of the prediction (on the event’s non-occurrence). In the context of both probabilistically unexpected (Experiment 1) and expected (Experiment 2) outcomes, we find that communicators are perceived as less credible and less correct given “directionality–outcome incongruence”. Communicators should thus carefully consider the directionality implicit in their risk communications to maximise communication effectiveness.
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来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
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