马来西亚棕榈油出口需求:运用ARDL方法分析

Q3 Social Sciences

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI:10.55493/5005.v12i3.4531

N. Ismail, Sarah Nursyazmin Mohamad Kamal, Muhamad Firdaus, Norazwa Mohamed Hariri

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引用次数: 0

摘要

马来西亚棕榈油行业的增长已经在全球贸易伙伴之间建立了出口需求。因此，马来西亚获得了世界上最大的棕榈油生产国和出口国的声誉。1980年粗棕榈油产量为250万吨;然而，到2019年，由于对油棕产品的高出口需求，这一数字已增至1986万吨。本研究以1991 - 2019年马来西亚棕榈油出口需求为研究对象，采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整分析出口需求决定因素、加权平均贸易伙伴收入、马来西亚出口价格、竞争对手出口价格、世界棕榈油出口价格、世界大豆油出口价格、实际有效汇率。主要研究结果表明，决定马来西亚棕榈油出口需求的因素是棕榈油价格变化和贸易伙伴收入。此外，该研究还发现，欧洲对不可持续棕榈油消费的限制损害了马来西亚对棕榈油的出口需求。

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Export Demand of Palm Oil in Malaysia: Analysis using ARDL Approach

The growth of the palm oil industry in Malaysia has established a demand for exports among trading partners worldwide. As a result, Malaysia has gained a reputation as the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Crude palm oil production in 1980 was 2.50 million tonnes; however, by 2019 it had increased to 19.86 million tonnes due to the high export demand for oil palm products. This study studies the export demand for palm oil in Malaysia from 1991 to 2019 by adopting autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for cointegration to analyze the export demand determinant, weighted average trading partner income, Malaysian export price, competitor export price, world export price of palm oil, world export price of soybean oil, and real effective exchange rate. The main findings reveal that the factors that determine Malaysian export demands for palm oil are palm oil price changes and trading partner income. In addition, the study also finds that European restrictions on unsustainable palm oil consumption hurt Malaysia’s export demand for palm oil.

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来源期刊

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量