全球经济政策的不确定性是否阻碍了新兴市场的出口流动?异质面板SVAR分析

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Çağlayan Aslan, Senay Acikgoz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本文考察了全球经济政策不确定性(EPU)对新兴市场(EMs)出口流动的影响。方法-本文使用结构面板向量自回归建模方法来捕捉国家之间的相互依赖性以及新兴市场的反应是异质和动态的可能性。从2003:01到2019:12的不平衡月度面板数据被用来估计脉冲响应和方差分解,不仅对整个面板数据,而且对每个新兴市场。研究结果表明,全球EPU对出口有持续的负面影响,而外汇收入和汇率增加了新兴市场的出口量。鉴于新兴市场对不确定性冲击的不同反应,第二阶段回归估计表明,新兴市场部门出口多样化程度的提高可能会减少全球EPU对其出口流动的不利影响。同时,出口产品的高技术含量导致全球EPU传输的倍增。启示-这些发现通过强调通过考虑国家异质性来考虑全球EPU在新兴市场的传导效应的重要性,从而推动了文献的发展。原创性-这是唯一一篇通过估计第二步普通最小二乘方程来研究减轻或放大GEPU对出口流量影响的因素的论文。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Are the global economic policy uncertainties blocking the export flows of emerging markets? A heterogeneous panel SVAR analysis
Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows. Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM. Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions. Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity. Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.
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20.00%
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