隔热和热泵在英国脱碳中的意义

Q4 Energy
A. Williams, M. Thomson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了英国在法律要求到2050年实现净零碳排放的背景下,在大多数英国建筑物中紧急进行隔热和热泵安装的经济案例。这两位作者最近的一项研究假设,这种隔热和热泵将会到位,并展示了如何通过低碳发电和适当的储存来满足整个英国的能源需求。本文扩展了模型,以考虑以下风险:绝缘没有广泛安装,化石燃气锅炉退役(因为它们必须退役),但只被电阻加热取代,这是悲观的,但在没有热泵的情况下可能出现的结果。不出所料,电阻加热和缺乏绝缘被证明消耗更多的电力:空间加热增加了608%,总体增加了52%。这篇论文的贡献在于量化了季节变化以及对发电和储存的影响,这使得总成本增加了更大的比例:几乎翻了一番。特别是,在没有额外的绝缘和热泵的情况下,峰值电力需求高出130%,所需峰值发电量高出140%。这篇论文还说明了投资于隔热和热泵的资本的及时回报,主要是因为它们比额外的风力涡轮机和能源储存所需的成本更低。仅在平化能源成本方面,未能隔热和安装热泵的额外成本就上升到每年630亿英镑,这大大增加了英国无法实现净零排放的风险。从28年的改造活动开始算起,整个建筑存量改造成本的财务盈亏平衡点仅为15年,此后成本节约不断增加。本文表明,对所有建筑进行适当的隔热和热泵改造是必要的,也是经济有效的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Significance of Insulation and Heat Pumps in Decarbonising the UK
This paper examines the economic case for the UK to proceed urgently with the installation of thermal insulation and heat pumps in most UK buildings, in the context of the legal requirement to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. A recent study by the same authors assumed that such insulation and heat pumps would be in place, and showed how the whole of the UK’s energy demand could be met by low carbon electricity generation and appropriate storage. This paper extends the modelling to consider the risk that insulation is not widely installed, fossil gas boilers are retired (as they must be) but are replaced only by resistive heating, which is the pessimistic but likely outcome in the absence of heat pumps. Unsurprisingly, resistive heating and lack of insulation is shown to consume vastly more electricity: an increase of 608% for space heating and 52% overall. The contribution of this paper is in quantifying the seasonal variations and implications for generation and storage, which make the overall costs increase by an even greater proportion: almost doubling. In particular, peak electricity demand is 130% higher and required peak generation is 140% higher without extra insulation and heat pumps. The paper also illustrates the timely return on capital invested in insulation and heat pumps, primarily because they are cheaper than the additional wind turbines and energy storage required otherwise. The additional costs of failing to insulate and install heat pumps escalate to £63bn per year in levelised energy costs alone, and greatly increase the risk of the UK failing to reach net-zero. The financial break-even point for the costs of retrofitting the entire building stock is shown to be just 15 years from the start of a 28-year retrofitting campaign, with increasing cost savings thereafter. The paper shows that it is both necessary and cost effective to retrofit all buildings with proper insulation and heat pumps.
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来源期刊
Journal of Nuclear Energy Science and Power Generation Technology
Journal of Nuclear Energy Science and Power Generation Technology Energy-Energy Engineering and Power Technology
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