Modeling and Forecasting of Mulberry Cocoon Prices in Ramanagaram and Siddlaghatta Markets of Karnataka

Accurate forecasting of prices of mulberry cocoons (CB)is essentialfor planning and policy purposes. A study had been taken up to forecast the prices of mulberry cocoons (CB) in Government Cocoon Market (GCM), Ramanagaram and Siddlaghatta of Karnataka by employing Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. A suitable model was identified based on the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function and the adequacy of the model was judged based on the values of Ljung-Box Q statistics and Normalized BIC. The forecasted values of price showed decreased trend in both the markets across the periods. The forecasting performance of the model was assessed for both the markets using coefficient of determination, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and found thatthe fitted ARIMA model was found to be better model in forecasting the prices of mulberry cocoons in both themarkets.