{"title":"P*:不是通胀预测者的圣杯","authors":"Lawrence J. Christiano","doi":"10.21034/QR.1341","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.","PeriodicalId":78784,"journal":{"name":"The Quarterly review","volume":"30 1","pages":"3-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1989-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"72","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail\",\"authors\":\"Lawrence J. Christiano\",\"doi\":\"10.21034/QR.1341\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.\",\"PeriodicalId\":78784,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Quarterly review\",\"volume\":\"30 1\",\"pages\":\"3-18\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1989-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"72\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Quarterly review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.1341\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Quarterly review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21034/QR.1341","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 72
摘要
本文描述并评价了美国联邦储备委员会于1989年夏季提出的预测通货膨胀趋势的新方法P- star (P*)。这篇论文考察了P*与其他八种预测方法相比，如果所有这些方法都被用来预测20世纪70年代和80年代的通货膨胀，结果会有多好。事实证明，P*并不是预测通胀的特别好或特别坏的方法。
This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.
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