Danijela Avramović, Dragan T. Spasić
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摘要

气候变化在20世纪下半叶已成为一个全球性问题,并日益突出。自然灾害所表现出来的气候变化的负面影响在林分和森林生态系统中最为明显。本研究的时间跨度为2008年至2017年,数据来源于官方统计报告。收集了以下类别的数据:年平均气温、年平均降水、年平均相对空气湿度、造成国家森林破坏的灾害事件数量,如昆虫活动、植物病害、野火或气候和地质灾害,以及这种破坏的范围。本文的目的是分析上述数据,并利用结果确定观测到的气候因素对塞尔维亚国有森林的损害发生率、损害范围和每次灾害事件的损害的影响。这篇论文意义重大,因为它代表了一种开创性的尝试,综合了温度、降水和湿度对塞尔维亚(不包括科索沃和梅托希亚自治省)由昆虫活动、植物病害、地球物理事件和野火引起的国有森林损害的发生率和范围的影响。气候因子对灾害发生率和范围的影响呈非线性关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
УТИЦАЈ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЕ, ПАДАВИНА И ВЛАЖНОСТИ ВАЗДУХА НА ШТЕТЕ ОД ЕЛЕМЕНТАРНИХ НЕПОГОДА У ДРЖАВНИМ ШУМАМА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
Climate change has acquired a status of a global issue in the second half of the 20th century, nowadays becoming more and more prominent. The negative effects of climate change as manifested through natural disasters are noticeable the most in forest stands and forest ecosystems. This study covers the period from 2008 to 2017, and the data included was collected from official statistical reports. The data on the following categories was collected: average annual air temperature, average annual precipitation, average annual relative air humidity, the number of disaster events, such as insect activity, plant diseases, wildfires, or climate and geological disasters, causing damage in state forests, and the scope of such damage. The aim of this paper is to analyze the said data and to use the results to determine the influence of observed climatic elements on the incidence of damage, the scope of damage, and the damage per one disaster event in Serbian state forests. This paper is significant because it represents a pioneering attempt to synthesize the influence of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on the incidence and scope of damage in state forests resulting from insect activity, plant diseases, geophysical events, and wildfires in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija). A non-linear dependence of the influence of climate factors on damage incidence and scope has been determined.
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