英国脱欧不确定性与贸易解体

NBER Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI:10.3386/W25334

Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, N. Limão

{"title":"英国脱欧不确定性与贸易解体","authors":"Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, N. Limão","doi":"10.3386/W25334","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"33 7-8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"69","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration\",\"authors\":\"Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, N. Limão\",\"doi\":\"10.3386/W25334\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19091,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"NBER Working Paper Series\",\"volume\":\"33 7-8 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"69\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"NBER Working Paper Series\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25334\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"NBER Working Paper Series","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25334","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 69

摘要

我们估计了优惠贸易分歧的不确定性效应。英国退出欧盟(Brexit)的可能性增加，降低了双边出口价值和贸易参与。这些影响正在增加跨产品的贸易政策风险。我们估计，在平均4.5%的分歧关税下，公投后英国脱欧的可能性增加会使欧盟-英国的双边出口价值降低11-20%。欧盟和英国的出口商都认为不太可能爆发贸易战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

NBER Working Paper Series

自引率

0.00%

发文量