Changes in Fertility Decline in Rwanda: A Decomposition Analysis

After having stalled in the 1990s, fertility in Rwanda resumed its downward trajectory between 2005 and 2010. The total fertility rate declined from 6.1 to 4.6 and modern contraceptive use increased. However, it is unclear which determinants lay behind the previous stall and the recent strong drop in fertility. This paper contributes to an ongoing debate on the impact of social upheavals on fertility decline. We use a decomposition analysis, focusing on the change in characteristics and reproductive behaviour of women and their contributions to levels of fertility during 1992–2000 and 2000–2010. Results show that due to widowhood and separation the proportion of women who were married decreased between 1992 and 2000, but their fertility increased in the same period due to replacement fertility and an unmet need for family planning. After 2000, postponement of marriage and lower infant mortality contributed to lower fertility, but the most important effect is the overall lower fertility due not only to improved family planning provision but perhaps also to the sensitizing campaigns of the Rwandan government.