The productivity and potential future recovery of the Bakken formation of North Dakota

The Bakken shale and similar formations in North Dakota are a new, poorly characterized resource and the oil production potential of North Dakota is highly uncertain. To better understand this resource, we employ a least squares curve fitting method on 5773 wells in the Bakken, drilled from 2005 to mid-2013, fitting each well with hyperbolic decline (HD) and stretched exponential (SE) decline models. We characterize well productivity by vintage and location. Additionally, we construct scenarios to simulate future production by varying individual well productivity, well spacing, and drilling rate. Using the HD model, a typical Bakken well drilled to date is expected to produce 270 mbbl (mean) or 221 mbbl (median) over a 15-year life. Using the SE model these figures are slightly lower: 231 mbbl (mean), 181 mbbl (median). Over our study period, the cumulative production in the first six months of a well’s life (IP180) increased and then remained steady. EURs increased until 2010 and have decreased since 2010. It appears that wells are becoming less productive over time, with the reasons not yet fully accounted for. Our base forecast has North Dakota producing at least 1 mmbbl/day for over 20 years, peaking at approximately 1.7 mmbbl/day in the mid-2020s. This period of high production can be shortened by faster-than-expected decline or extended by advances in technology.