资源民族主义的宏观经济和政治决定因素

Wenhua Li, T. Adachi
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摘要

资源民族主义本质上是政府为了国家和人民的利益,通过政治或经济手段对自然资源企业进行强制性干预。进入21世纪以来,它通过各种手段对采矿业的攻击越来越猖獗。依赖资源导向型经济增长的贫穷国家通常发现自己陷入了“资源诅咒”。资源民族主义对投资者的危害在于,一个事件可能迅速升级,并导致一系列事件,使项目无法商业化。尽管对资源民族主义成因进行了历史和理论的社会调查,但很少有研究对其主要参数进行量化。本研究的目的是寻找主导重要金属和能源生产国资源民族主义发生的重要因素,并量化其边际效应。本研究采用二元选择logit模型对面板数据采用池化方法。该研究的一个特点是,作者参考美国地质调查局的报告整理出资源民族主义发生的二进制数据集。结果表明,高科技出口(制成品出口百分比)、矿石和金属出口(商品出口百分比)、法治(世界治理指标)、贸易(GDP百分比)和除森林外的自然资源租金(GDP百分比)主导了中高收入国家资源民族主义的发生;政府有效性(世界治理指标)、政策感知指数(弗雷泽研究所)、高科技出口(制成品出口百分比)和矿产租金(GDP百分比)主导了中低收入国家资源民族主义的发生。根据我们的模型,预测了90个国家发生资源民族主义的概率。2012年的十大危险国家是朝鲜、印度、洪都拉斯、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、布基纳法索、蒙古、古巴、玻利维亚、秘鲁。本研究是资源民族主义研究的初步尝试,为资源民族主义的理论建构和仿真研究提供了一些启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Macroeconomic and Political Determinants of Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism is essentially mandatory government intervention in natural resources businesses by political or economic means in order to benefit the nation and the people. It is attacking the mining industry more and more rampantly by all kinds of means since the twenty-first century. Poor countries who count on a resource-led economic growth usually find themselves trapped into “resource curse”. The harmfulness of resource nationalism for investors is that one event can quickly escalate and lead to a chain of events which make projects commercially unavailable. In spite of historical and theoretical social investigations in the causes of resource nationalism, rare studies engaged in quantification of dominant parameters of it. The objective of this study is to find significant factors that dominate the occurrence of resource nationalism for important metal and energy resources producing countries and quantify their marginal effects. The study applies binary choice logit model for panel data using pooled method. One feature of the research is that binary data set of occurrence of resource nationalism are sorted out by authors referencing U.S. Geological Survey’s reports. The results indicate that high-technology export (% manufactured export), ores and metals exports (% merchandise exports), rule of law (world governance indicator), trade (% GDP), and natural resource rent except forest (% GDP ) dominant the occurrence of resource nationalism for high and upper middle income group countries; government effectiveness (world governance indicator), policy perception index (The Fraser Institute), high-technology export (% manufactured export), and mineral rent (% GDP) dominant the occurrence of resource nationalism for lower middle and low income countries. According to our model, probability of occurrence of resource nationalism in 90 countries are predicted. Top 10 risky countries in 2012 are estimated to be North Korea, India, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Burkina Faso, Mongolia, Cuba, Bolivia, and Peru. The study is a primary trial of researching on resource nationalism and provides some insights for theoretical building and simulation on the issue.
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