结构性断裂、金融全球化与金融发展:来自土耳其的证据

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Pınar Avcı, M. Çetin
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引用次数: 2

摘要

目的——米什金的假设表明,全球化似乎是刺激金融体系发展的关键因素。该研究检验了1970年至2017年土耳其经济的这一假设。它通过将经济增长、通货膨胀和自然资源租金作为附加决定因素纳入金融发展规范,重点关注金融全球化与金融发展之间的联系。方法:采用Ng-Perron和Vogelsang-Perron单位根检验检验变量的平稳性。协整分析是使用hatsemi - j和ARDL界检验程序进行的。研究发现——主要实证结果表明,在结构断裂下,该序列是协整的;从长期来看,金融全球化和经济增长促进了金融发展,而通货膨胀和自然资源租金则对金融发展产生了负面影响。金融全球化与经济增长到金融发展之间存在单向因果关系。同时,通货膨胀与金融发展、自然资源租金、金融发展之间存在双向因果关系。启示-实证研究结果可以为政策制定者提供重要建议。独创性——很少有时间序列研究包括土耳其经济和结构性断裂。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Structural breaks, financial globalization, and financial development: Evidence from Turkey
Purpose ― Mishkin’s hypothesis suggests that globalization appears to be a vital factor in stimulating the development of the financial system. The study examines this hypothesis for the Turkish economy from 1970 to 2017. It focuses on the link between financial globalization and financial development by integrating economic growth, inflation, and natural resource rent as additional determinants into the financial development specification. Methods ― The Ng-Perron and Vogelsang-Perron unit root tests are used to check the stationarity of variables. The cointegration analysis is performed using the Hatemi-J and ARDL bounds testing procedures. Findings ― The main empirical results show that the series are cointegrated under structural breaks; in the long run, financial globalization and economic growth increase financial development while inflation and natural resource rent negatively affect financial development. A unidirectional causality exists from financial globalization and economic growth to financial development. At the same time, there is bidirectional causality between inflation and financial development, natural resource rent, and financial development. Implications ― The empirical findings can present important recommendations for policymakers. Originality ― Very few time-series studies include Turkey’s economy and structural breaks.
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自引率
20.00%
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21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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