The determinants of incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector: an empirical analysis on the Turkish energy market

ABSTRACT The main target of this study is to estimate the determinants and their effect on incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector in Turkey. The data of the study covers 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019. While the dependent variable is investment incentives, the independent variables of the study are separated, classified, and tested under three different models. The first model includes economic variables (GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, export, and import), the second model includes production and investment variables (tariff price, industrial production index, total installed power, gross fixed capital formation), and the third model contains the demand determinant variables (production of the incentive plants, electricity gross demand, peak sudden). Moreover, the dummy variable was included in the study for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The results of the ARDL Boundary Test showed that in the long run, GDP and Exchange Rate variables were seen to have the most significant impact on incentives, respectively, where these effects were positive in the case of GDP and negative for the Exchange Rate. These were followed by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It is recommended that policymakers should always consider the negative effect of the exchange rates on the incentive system in their long-term planning.