利用偏差校正的全球气候模式对泰国东北部降水和温度的未来预估

IF 0.6 4区综合性期刊 Q3 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Chiang Mai Journal of Science Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI:10.12982/cmjs.2023.041

Wittanan Tammadid, Ketmanee Nantasom, Wichayaporn Sirksiri, Supika Vanitchung, Chaiwatchara Promjittiphong, A. Limsakul, P. Hanpattanakit

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引用次数: 0

摘要

人为温室气体(GHGs)的增加导致了全球气候变化，其中泰国东北部地区的变化率最高。这构成了干旱的重大风险及其对作物产量的影响。为了更好地了解气候变化的潜在后果并制定适当的适应策略，本研究旨在利用代表性浓度路径(rcp) 4.5和8.5下的偏差校正全球气候模型预测2015年至2055年泰国东北部的降水和温度数据。结果表明:2015 ~ 2055年，两种rcp条件下的年降水量和气温均呈上升趋势;年平均(最小最大)的降水CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM,和合奏意味着从四个模型在RCP4.5 1238 .83点(904.28)-1629 .70美元,1227 .82(865.49 - 1721 .31点),1312(876.60 -1616 .38点),1350 .21(985.55 -1625),和1282 .41点(1088点- 1461 .49)毫米和RCP8.5 1267 .96点(864.24 -1712 .86点),1222 .20 -1835点(863.79),1294 .07点(843.04 -1752 .41点),1353 .14点(- 1827 .23 1059 .50),和1284 .34(- 1541 .63 1116 .55)毫米,分别。RCP4.5下的温度分别为29.27(28.15 ~ 30.35)、29.59(27.98 ~ 31.20)、29.12(27.65 ~ 30.70)、28.09(26.96 ~ 29.14)、29.02(28.08 ~ 29.90)℃，RCP8.5下的温度分别为29.50(28.12 ~ 31.40)、29.68(28.23 ~ 31.50)、29.11(27.51 ~ 30.26)、28.37(27.11 ~ 29.88)、29.17(28.08 ~ 30.66)℃。这些结果表明，RCP4.5条件下的年降水量比RCP8.5条件下的少，而两种rcpcp条件下的气温均呈上升趋势。因此，很明显，气候变化在泰国东北部的表现会有所不同，这取决于当地的情况和今天实施的措施。了解未来气候变化在局部范围内的影响和风险，并确定适应性解决方案，对未来构成重大挑战。

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Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models

The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses signifi cant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49- 1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These fi ndings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose signifi cant challenges for the future.

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来源期刊

Chiang Mai Journal of Science MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

25.00%

发文量

103

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The Chiang Mai Journal of Science is an international English language peer-reviewed journal which is published in open access electronic format 6 times a year in January, March, May, July, September and November by the Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University. Manuscripts in most areas of science are welcomed except in areas such as agriculture, engineering and medical science which are outside the scope of the Journal. Currently, we focus on manuscripts in biology, chemistry, physics, materials science and environmental science. Papers in mathematics statistics and computer science are also included but should be of an applied nature rather than purely theoretical. Manuscripts describing experiments on humans or animals are required to provide proof that all experiments have been carried out according to the ethical regulations of the respective institutional and/or governmental authorities and this should be clearly stated in the manuscript itself. The Editor reserves the right to reject manuscripts that fail to do so.