埃及水牛人工授精网络的可行性:文献综述

I. Soliman, A. Mashhour
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摘要

文献综述证实,埃及在牛奶生产方面具有相对优势,而不是红肉生产,特别是来自水牛的红肉。此外,水资源日益匮乏,限制了饲料面积的横向扩张。此外,粮食和饲料需求之间对可用农业用地资源的竞争也很激烈。因此,奶牛存量的横向扩张将是不可能的。因此,埃及水牛发展的唯一选择是通过提高产奶量来实现垂直扩张,以弥补目前国内牛奶生产的不足。埃及消费者更喜欢水牛奶,因为它的颜色,味道和高含量的总固体,特别是脂肪。水牛奶比牛奶贵,其产量的增长速度比牛奶快。利用人工授精(AI)网络,拟议的水牛奶产量遗传改良正在加速。最近的一项研究[1]提供了证据,证明奶牛遗传投资的回报是可行的(IRR = 19.71%)。然而,根据官方统计数据,埃及只有两个水牛人工智能中心,用于选定的水牛品种,服务于四个人工智能单位。因此,本研究的目的是通过估算(净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期)及其对拟议项目可能面临的不利变化的敏感性,评估在埃及建立人工智能网络的可行性。该研究使用了从水牛精液人工智能单元和尼罗河三角洲水牛养殖人工智能中心收集的实地调查数据。研究结果表明,虽然埃及经济的平均贴现率为17.5%,但在最可能的情况下,一个人工智能设备的估计内部收益率约为35%。如果精液价格下降10%,人工授精成本增加10%,则irr分别约为28%和31%。在最可能的情况下,人工智能中心的估计内部收益率约为31%。10%的精液价格下降,10%的饲料成本或父系价格上升,分别会导致26%、30%和28%的损失。因此,精液剂量的最低销售价格是影响IRR的最有效变量。另一方面,不利的变化将使投资保持高激励,以建立可行的人工智能网络,以快速提高牛奶的水牛奶产量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Feasibility of Artificial Insemination Network for Egyptian Buffalo Development: A Literature Reviews
Literature reviews confirmed that Egypt has a comparative advantage in milk production rather than red meat production, particularly from buffalo. Furthermore, water resources are becoming increasingly scarce, limiting horizontal expansion in fodder acreage. Furthermore, there is fierce competition between food and feed demand on available agricultural land resources. As a result, horizontal expansion in dairy buffalo stock would be impossible. As a result, the only option for buffalo development in Egypt is vertical expansion through increased milk yield to meet the current deficit in domestic milk production. The Egyptian consumer prefers buffalo milk for its color taste and high content of total solids, particularly fat. Buffalo milk is more expensive than cow milk, and its production is increasing faster than cow milk production. The proposed genetic improvement of buffalo milk yield is being accelerated using an artificial insemination (AI) network. A recent study [1], provided evidence that the return of genetic investment in dairy buffalo would be feasible, (IRR = 19.71%)  However, according to official statistics, Egypt has only two AI-centers for buffalo selected buffalo sires, serving four AI-units. As a result, the goal of this study was to assess the feasibility of establishing an AI-network in Egypt by estimating (NPV, IRR, and payback period) and its sensitivity to unfavorable changes that the proposed program may face. The study used a field survey data collected from an AI-unit of the buffaloes’ semen and an AI-Center for raising buffalo sires in Nile Delta. The findings showed that, while the Egyptian economy's average discount rate was 17.5 %, the estimated IRR for one AI-unit was around 35 % under the most likely scenario. A 10% decrease in semen price and a 10% increase in insemination costs would result in IRRs of approximately 28% and 31%, respectively. Under the most likely conditions, the estimated IRR for the AI-center was around 31%. 10% Decrease in Semen Price, and 10% increase in feed costs or in Sire’s price would result in 26%, 30% or 28% respectively. The lowest sale price of semen dose is thus the most effective variable on the IRR. Unfavorable changes, on the other hand, would keep investments with high incentives in establishing a feasible AI-Network for rapidly increasing the dairy buffalo milk yield.
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