{"title":"服务贸易中的j曲线效应:一个分类分析","authors":"Ivan D. Trofimov","doi":"10.1177/00157325221126598","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL Codes: F14, F31, C22","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"199 - 219"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis\",\"authors\":\"Ivan D. Trofimov\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/00157325221126598\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL Codes: F14, F31, C22\",\"PeriodicalId\":29933,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Foreign Trade Review\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"199 - 219\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Foreign Trade Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325221126598\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Foreign Trade Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325221126598","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis
This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL Codes: F14, F31, C22