Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of American Flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) in Cuba

Abstract. Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Bioclimatic models are widely used tools for assessing potential responses of species to climate change. We predicted current and future distributions of American Flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber; Family Phoenicopteridae), a resident species in Cuba, using ecological niche models in combination with climate data in Maxent software. We predicted four potential future distributions in Cuba under two emissions scenarios in both 2050 and 2070, combining three Global Circulation Models. Bioclimatic variables that contributed the most to modelled distributions of American Flamingo were mean diurnal temperature range [mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)], temperature seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter. Our results predict that the current distribution of American Flamingo will be reduced by 38% in a changing future climate under the most pessimistic scenario of 2070. The potential suitable habitat of American Flamingo under this same scenario would be 51% excluded from the National System of Protected Areas of Cuba. Species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the American Flamingo throughout Cuba, and our findings suggest a strong conservation strategy is needed to conserve American Flamingo populations under a changing climate.