{"title":"基于学习和歧义规避的稳健再保险契约","authors":"Duni Hu, Hailong Wang","doi":"10.1080/03461238.2022.2030398","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the robust reinsurance demand and price under learning and ambiguity aversion. In the reinsurance contract, the insurer is ambiguity neutral and believes that he is perfectly informed, and the reinsurer is a Bayesian learner and is aware that even the filtered model is the best description of the data-generating process, might not forecast the future claims correctly. The ambiguity-averse reinsurer has a preference for reinsurance contract which is robust to model misspecification. Closed-form expressions for the robust reinsurance demand and price are derived. We find that both the reinsurer's one-sided learning and ambiguity aversion influence the structures and levels of the optimal reinsurance demand and price. Moreover, if the ambiguity-averse reinsurer specifies the suboptimal reinsurance contract as an ambiguity-neutral decision-maker, it will result in significant utility loss and the utility loss increases with ambiguity aversion level and Bayesian volatility.","PeriodicalId":49572,"journal":{"name":"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"794 - 815"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Robust reinsurance contract with learning and ambiguity aversion\",\"authors\":\"Duni Hu, Hailong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/03461238.2022.2030398\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We investigate the robust reinsurance demand and price under learning and ambiguity aversion. In the reinsurance contract, the insurer is ambiguity neutral and believes that he is perfectly informed, and the reinsurer is a Bayesian learner and is aware that even the filtered model is the best description of the data-generating process, might not forecast the future claims correctly. The ambiguity-averse reinsurer has a preference for reinsurance contract which is robust to model misspecification. Closed-form expressions for the robust reinsurance demand and price are derived. We find that both the reinsurer's one-sided learning and ambiguity aversion influence the structures and levels of the optimal reinsurance demand and price. Moreover, if the ambiguity-averse reinsurer specifies the suboptimal reinsurance contract as an ambiguity-neutral decision-maker, it will result in significant utility loss and the utility loss increases with ambiguity aversion level and Bayesian volatility.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49572,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal\",\"volume\":\"64 1\",\"pages\":\"794 - 815\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2022.2030398\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2022.2030398","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Robust reinsurance contract with learning and ambiguity aversion
We investigate the robust reinsurance demand and price under learning and ambiguity aversion. In the reinsurance contract, the insurer is ambiguity neutral and believes that he is perfectly informed, and the reinsurer is a Bayesian learner and is aware that even the filtered model is the best description of the data-generating process, might not forecast the future claims correctly. The ambiguity-averse reinsurer has a preference for reinsurance contract which is robust to model misspecification. Closed-form expressions for the robust reinsurance demand and price are derived. We find that both the reinsurer's one-sided learning and ambiguity aversion influence the structures and levels of the optimal reinsurance demand and price. Moreover, if the ambiguity-averse reinsurer specifies the suboptimal reinsurance contract as an ambiguity-neutral decision-maker, it will result in significant utility loss and the utility loss increases with ambiguity aversion level and Bayesian volatility.
期刊介绍:
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal is a journal for actuarial sciences that deals, in theory and application, with mathematical methods for insurance and related matters.
The bounds of actuarial mathematics are determined by the area of application rather than by uniformity of methods and techniques. Therefore, a paper of interest to Scandinavian Actuarial Journal may have its theoretical basis in probability theory, statistics, operations research, numerical analysis, computer science, demography, mathematical economics, or any other area of applied mathematics; the main criterion is that the paper should be of specific relevance to actuarial applications.