The temporal abundance-distribution relationship in a global invader sheds light on species distribution mechanisms

The geographic expansion and abundance fluctuations of invasive species offer unprecedented insights to investigate potential mechanisms underlying the distribution-abundance relationship, one of the most universal patterns in community ecology. However, the abundance of invasive species is rarely documented in the needed detail. Data from historical records, scientific and popular literature, citizen science and expert interviews were synthesized to obtain insights into the long-term expansion and abundance cycles of the Chinese mitten crab, one of the world’s 100 worst invasive species. Thus for the first time, global long-term data on population size fluctuations have been correlated with the global spatiotemporal invasion history of a non-native species. Geographic expansions and increases in abundance co-occurred in the 1930s and again since the 1990s in agreement with the distribution-abundance relationship. Furthermore, a regional case study for the German river Elbe indicates that increases in abundance may be driven by improved riverine water quality and rising sea surface temperatures. Environmental restoration and climate change therefore benefit this invasive species, and could lead to further geographic expansion and increases in abundance.