韩国教育的地位外部性与低出生率

Seongeun Kim, M. Tertilt, Minchul Yum
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引用次数: 6

摘要

在过去的20年里,韩国的总生育率一直很低,约为1.2。近年来,韩国政府投入了数十亿美元的资金,证明了政府对低生育率的严重担忧。在本文中,我们的目的是了解为什么韩国的出生率如此之低,并评估是否有理由让政府感到担忧。我们要问,对于低生育率,如果有的话,可以而且应该做些什么。为此,我们提出了身份外部性作为低生育率无效的新原因。在我们的内生生育模型中,相对于其他父母的孩子,父母更关心自己孩子的教育。我们发现,相对于第一优,均衡的特点是教育投资过度,生育投资不足。我们将模型校准为韩国数据,以量化地位外部性的作用。我们发现,如果没有它,生育率会高出17%。我们还发现,外部性在解释生育率-收入关系方面发挥了很大作用,与大多数其他国家相比,韩国的外部性是正的。我们进行了几项政策实验,发现对教育征税在福利方面是不可取的,即使它减少了过度投资。同样,产前转移确实提高了生育率,但也没有改善福利。我们的结论是,需要更微妙的政策来纠正由于地位问题而引起的摩擦。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Status Externalities in Education and Low Birth Rates in Korea
South Korea has been experiencing a very low total fertility rate around 1.2 over the last two decades. A serious concern of the Korean government about low fertility is demonstrated by its billions-dollars worth spending in recent years. In this paper, we aim to understand why the birth rate is so low in Korea and to assess whether there is a reason for the government to be concerned. We ask what, if anything, could and should be done about the low fertility rate. To do so, we propose status externalities as a new reason for inefficiently low fertility. In our model with endogenous fertility, parents care about the education of their children relative to other parent’s children. We find that the equilibrium is characterized by over-investment in education and under-investment in fertility, relative to the first best. We calibrate the model to Korean data to quantify the role of the status externality. We find that without it fertility would be 17% higher. We also find the externality plays a large role in explaining the fertility-income relationship, which is positive in Korea, in contrast to most other countries. We conduct several policy experiment and find that taxing education would not be desirable in welfare terms, even though it reduces the over-investment. Similarly, pronatal transfers do increase the fertility rate but are also not welfare improving. We conclude that more subtle policies are needed to rectify the friction introduced through status concerns.
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