澳大利亚气候变暖:自1850年以来观测到的变化和全球温度目标

IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences
M. Grose, Ghyslaine Boschat, B. Trewin, Vanessa Round, Linden Ashcroft, A. King, S. Narsey, E. Hawkins
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引用次数: 3

摘要

年平均气温经常被用作监测气候变化的基准和其潜在影响的指标。2015年《巴黎协定》的目标是将全球平均气温保持在远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平,优先限制在1.5摄氏度以内。因此,人们有兴趣利用“全球变暖水平”的框架,以及通过排放途径和时间范围来理解和检查区域温度变化。为了在区域范围内应用全球变暖水平框架,我们需要量化从19世纪末到今天的区域变暖,以及达到变暖水平的未来时期。在此,我们利用目前可获得的早至1860年的早期历史数据集和CMIP5/CMIP6的最新全球气候模式模拟集来补充1910年以来的可靠观测资料,以检验1850-1900年基线(通常用作工业化前条件的代表)以来澳大利亚过去和未来的变暖情况。我们发现,在1850-1900年和2011-2020年之间,澳大利亚变暖了~1.6°C(不确定性不太可能大大超过±0.3°C)。这一变暖是同期全球变暖1.1°C的1.4倍,与观测到的全球陆地平均变暖一致。对全球变暖水平的预估也进行了量化,并表明未来变暖的比率略低于迄今为止观测到的比率,在所有未来全球变暖水平上约为1.0-1.3。我们还发现,为了在排放路径框架下使用CMIP6最新气候模式可靠地检验区域变暖,需要对集合成员赋予适当的权重。一旦应用了这些权重,结果与CMIP5类似。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets
Mean annual temperature is often used as a benchmark for monitoring climate change and as an indicator of its potential impacts. The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to keep the global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5°C. Therefore, there is interest in understanding and examining regional temperature change using this framework of ‘global warming levels’, as well as through emissions pathways and time horizons. To apply the global warming level framework regionally, we need to quantify regional warming from the late 19th century to today, and to future periods where the warming levels are reached. Here we supplement reliable observations from 1910 with early historical datasets currently available back to 1860 and the latest set of global climate model simulations from CMIP5/CMIP6 to examine the past and future warming of Australia from the 1850–1900 baseline commonly used as a proxy for pre-industrial conditions. We find that Australia warmed by ~1.6°C between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020 (with uncertainty unlikely to substantially exceed ±0.3°C). This warming is a ratio of ~1.4 times the ~1.1°C global warming over that time, and in line with observed global land average warming. Projections for global warming levels are also quantified and suggest future warming of slightly less than the observed ratio to date, at ~1.0–1.3 for all future global warming levels. We also find that to reliably examine regional warming under the emissions pathway framework using the latest climate models from CMIP6, appropriate weights to the ensemble members are required. Once these weights are applied, results are similar to CMIP5.
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来源期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, climate change and variability , climate impacts, climate modelling , past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability, atmospheric dynamics, synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology and severe weather, tropical meteorology, observation systems, remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes, weather, climate and ocean prediction, atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry, physical oceanography, air‐sea interactions, coastal zone processes, hydrology, cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions, land surface‐atmosphere interactions, space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology, ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics, data assimilation applied to the above subject areas . Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.
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