State of the raw wood growing stocks and prediction of further development of cutting in the context of coniferous stands calamity in the Czech Republic

The extremely dynamic development of calamities caused by the effects of global climate change followed by the spread of under-bark insect pests mainly in coniferous stands and the ongoing incidental felling have raised concerns in the woodworking industry about the developments in the source material with respect to ensuring production in a short-term view. Since the overall standing stock in spruce stands of all age classes in the Czech Republic amounts to 399.6 million m3 (2017–2026) and the theoretical outlook of the logging potential based on the percentage of logging accounts for 112.62 million m3 (2017–2026), the concerns might be deemed justified. The article presents an updated view of the current situation based on official statistics and offers an analytic prediction of the possible development, considering the possible consequences, even in the production of the forestry sector. The statistical data on the current situation have been compiled for the last two decades of development. The results show that with a continued high rate of bark beetle calamities, assuming a total annual cutting with a permanent limitation on the planned harvests of more than 30 million m3, the complete stands of spruce from age class 5 onwards could be harvested in approximately 14–16 years.