主持企业预测市场的经验:超出预测的好处

T. A. Montgomery, Paul M. Stieg, Michael J. Cavaretta, P. Moraal
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引用次数: 7

摘要

预测市场是虚拟的股票市场,通过利用人群的智慧来获得洞察力和预测事件。它们在公众中广泛应用于文化问题(选举结果、票房回报),最近被企业应用于利用员工知识和预测商业问题(销量、产品和功能、发行时间)的答案。决定是否运行预测市场需要很少被描述的实际经验。在过去几年中,福特汽车公司通过部署已知的最大的企业预测市场之一获得了实践经验。美国、欧洲和南美的业务合作伙伴提供了有关新车特性、销量、费率、定价和宏观经济趋势的问题。我们描述我们的经验,包括预测和现实世界结果之间的强相关性和弱相关性。然而,评估这种方法不仅仅是预测的准确性,因为它有许多附带的好处。除了预测之外,我们还讨论了评论的价值、股票价格随时间的变化、克服官僚主义限制的能力,以及灵活填补公司知识漏洞的能力,从而实现更好的决策。最后,我们给出了运行预测市场的建议,包括写好问题、市场持续时间、激励交易者和保护机密信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts
Prediction markets are virtual stock markets used to gain insight and forecast events by leveraging the wisdom of crowds. Popularly applied in the public to cultural questions (election results, box-office returns), they have recently been applied by corporations to leverage employee knowledge and forecast answers to business questions (sales volumes, products and features, release timing). Determining whether to run a prediction market requires practical experience that is rarely described. Over the last few years, Ford Motor Company obtained practical experience by deploying one of the largest corporate prediction markets known. Business partners in the US, Europe, and South America provided questions on new vehicle features, sales volumes, take rates, pricing, and macroeconomic trends. We describe our experience, including both the strong and weak correlations found between predictions and real world results. Evaluating this methodology goes beyond prediction accuracy, however, since there are many side benefits. In addition to the predictions, we discuss the value of comments, stock price changes over time, the ability to overcome bureaucratic limits, and flexibly filling holes in corporate knowledge, enabling better decision making. We conclude with advice on running prediction markets, including writing good questions, market duration, motivating traders and protecting confidential information.
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