俄罗斯联邦区背景下人口再生产的社会经济因素

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
T. I. Gulyaeva, E. Takmakova, V. Savkin
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In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). 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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究的目的。确定俄罗斯人口在一般经济发展的现代条件下和在联邦区范围内的再生产特点。材料和方法。在撰写这篇文章的过程中,作者使用了俄罗斯联邦政府的规范性法律文件、联邦国家统计局的材料、个别科学家和公共组织关于人口再生产问题的著作。在工作过程中,采用了表格法、图解法等统计研究方法,动态序列指标分析等。对俄罗斯联邦人口及其1990-2021年变化的组成部分、1950-2021年生育率和死亡率的动态进行了研究,并对包括联邦区在内的总生育率和人口净再生产系数下降的原因进行了研究。目前,俄罗斯联邦的人口还没有达到1990年的水平。人口增长总量的波动主要是由移民增长的波动引起的。在低生育率和高死亡率的情况下,移徙是人口增长的决定性因素。自1992年以来,人口的自然下降已经确定(2013-2015年除外)。2009-2017年,移民数量的增长超过了自然下降,这保证了整体人口的增长。1992年和2016年确定了俄罗斯联邦生育率和死亡率动态曲线的交点。从2012年到2016年,自然增长系数趋于零,然后形成下降趋势,即人口减少。俄罗斯出生率下降的主要原因是社会的人口和社会经济状况,其中总生育率稳步下降、人口老龄化和家庭结构的变化已经确定。在过去的30年里,该国人口的再生产一直在缩小,这可以被认为是潜在的人口减少。在俄罗斯联邦区的背景下,总生育率的高度变化已经确定。1990-2021年期间,中央联邦区和西北联邦区的总生育率未超过该指数的俄罗斯平均水平。在过去三年中(2019-2021年),西北、南部、伏尔加河和西伯利亚联邦区的总生育率一直在下降。为了消除各地区出生率的消极趋势,有必要创造就业机会,形成正常的住房条件,确保人口实际收入的可持续增长,组织现代水平的保健和教育,发展学前机构网络,并支持家庭。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Socio-Economic Factors of Population Reproduction in Russia and in the Context of Federal Districts
The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
175
期刊介绍: The Review of Economics and Statistics is a 100-year-old general journal of applied (especially quantitative) economics. Edited at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Review has published some of the most important articles in empirical economics.
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