Does the Participation Degree in Global Value Chains Influence Carbon Emission Transfer Through International Trade in Belt and Road Countries?

Studying the impact of global value chains’ (GVCs) participation degrees on carbon emission transfer through international trade (CTIT) in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies is of great significance because these economies are significant participants of GVCs and international trade. The current study, through the inter-regional Input-Output table, calculated the GVCs’ participation degrees (forward and backward participation) and CTIT (carbon emission transfer through export (ETET) and emission transfer through import [ETIT] trade) of 27 BRI economies from 2005 to 2018 and investigated the impact of the GVCs on CTIT. Several test results illustrated that endogenous issues did not affect the robustness of study discussions. The study articulates appropriate environmental governance policies that could realise emissions reduction goals. Significant results are (a) participation degree in GVCs increases the CTIT in BRI; (b) energy intensity, energy structure, final demand and secondary industry escalate CTIT; (c) the optimisations of participation degree in GVCs, energy intensity development, industrial structure optimisation and increased awareness of emission lessening among the BRI community could compensate for the growth in CTIT from the constant deepening of GVCs. This study delivers a comprehensive insight into understanding the driving forces that cause the changes in CTIT from the GVCs’ perspective. JEL Codes: F02, F18, Q56